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NRF says consumers to spend less this holiday season

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NRF holiday sales

WASHINGTON – Consumers expect to spend a bit less this holiday season, according to the annual survey released this week by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

Most of that decline will stem from consumers making less use of holiday sales for non-gift purchases. Buying presents for friends and family will still be a priority, though, and people also plan to spend on holiday decorations.

In total consumers plan to spend an average of $997.79 on gifts, holiday items such as decorations and food, and additional non-gift purchases for themselves and their families.

“Consumers have demonstrated their resilience and adaptability throughout these extraordinary times,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Looking ahead to the holiday season, retailers will ensure that their stores are safe for both customers and employees as we all prepare to celebrate family and friends during this special time of the year.”

While overall spending in these categories is down by about $50 from last year, nearly all ($45) of the decrease comes from consumers’ hesitation to use seasonal sales and promotions to buy other, non-gift purchases for themselves and their families. Consumer spending on gifts is on par with last year, decreasing by only about $8, while per-person spending on such holiday items as decorations is actually up slightly, the survey found. The NRF notes that expected spending remains significantly higher than the 5-year average for both those categories. And the holiday season is already top of mind with consumers — 42% say they plan to start their holiday shopping by the end of October and another 41% will start in November.

Consumers remain flexible with their holiday shopping plans, though, and most admit they could be convinced to start shopping earlier than usual to take advantage of special deals or to avoid crowds or the stress of last-minute shopping.

“Consumers are taking advantage of a variety of offerings from retailers this holiday season including earlier sales promotions and shipping options,” Prosper executive vice president of strategy Phil Rist said. “Consumers are focusing on making the holidays special for others but are playing it by ear when it comes to those ‘extra’ items they might get for themselves.”

The majority (60%) of consumers say they plan to purchase holiday items online this year. Nearly all (91%) online shoppers plan to take advantage of free shipping, while another 44% plan to use buy-online-pick-up-in-store and 16% plan to use same-day delivery. Other top holiday shopping destinations for consumers include department stores, mentioned by 45%, discount stores (43%), and supermarkets (42%).

One in five (19%) holiday shoppers say that they typically travel for the holidays but will stay home instead this year. Over half (53%) of those who changed their holiday travel plans said they are likely to spend more on holiday items this year, specifically because they will not be traveling.

The survey asked 7,660 consumers about winter holiday shopping plans. It was conducted October 1-9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.


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